Patience Won’t Sell Your House. Pricing Will.Waiting for the perfect buyer to fall in love with your house? In today’s market, that’s usually not what’s holding things up.
A Recession Doesn’t Equal a Housing Crisis
Dated: May 2 2023
Views: 228
A Recession Doesn’t Equal a Housing Crisis
Everywhere you look, people are talking about a potential recession. And if you’re planning to buy or sell a house, this may leave you wondering if your plans are still a wise move. To help ease your mind, experts are saying that if we do officially enter a recession, it’ll be mild and short. As the Federal Reserve explained in their March meeting:
“. . . the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.”
While a recession may be on the horizon, it won’t be one for the housing market record books like the crash in 2008. What we have to remember is that a recession doesn’t always lead to a housing crisis.
To prove it, let’s look at the historical data of what happened in real estate during previous recessions. That way you know why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession could mean for the housing market today.
A Recession Doesn’t Mean Falling Home Prices
To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six of them. So historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will always fall.
Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession will be a repeat of what happened to housing then. But today’s housing market isn’t about to crash because the fundamentals of the market are different than they were in 2008. Back then, one of the big reasons why prices fell was because there was a surplus of homes for sale at the same time distressed properties flooded the market. Today, the number of homes for sale is low, so while home prices may see slight declines in some areas and slight gains in others, a crash simply isn’t in the cards.
A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates
What a recession really means for the housing market is falling mortgage rates. As the graph below shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased.
Bankrate explains mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown:
“During a traditional recession, the Fed will usually lower interest rates. This creates an incentive for people to spend money and stimulate the economy. It also typically leads to more affordable mortgage rates, which leads to more opportunity for homebuyers.”
This year, mortgage rates have been quite volatile as they’ve responded to high inflation. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered between roughly 6-7%, and that’s impacted affordability for many potential homebuyers.
But, if there is a recession, history tells us mortgage rates may fall below that threshold, even though the days of 3% are behind us.
Bottom Line
You don’t need to fear what a recession means for the housing market. If we do have a recession, experts say it will be mild and short, and history shows it also means mortgage rates go down.
Eric Vermillion
I believe that your home is your sanctuary and should be treated as such. Whether you’re buying your first home or seeking that dream retirement residence, the experience should be nothing less ....
Latest Blog Posts
Mortgage Rates Just Saw Their Biggest Drop in a YearYou’ve been waiting for what feels like forever for mortgage rates to finally budge. And last week, they did – in a big way.On Friday,
Mortgage Rates Are Stabilizing – How That Helps Today’s BuyersOver the past few years, affordability has been the biggest challenge for homebuyers. Between rapidly rising home prices and
The Truth About Where Home Prices Are HeadingThere are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s&
The content relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part from the MLS of Central Oregon. Real estate listings held by Brokerages other than BST Realty, LLC are marked with the Reciprocity/IDX logo, and detailed information about these properties includes the name of the listing Brokerage. © MLS of Central Oregon (MLSCO).
This content last updated on September 11, 2026 3:56 PM UTC Some properties which appear for sale on this website may subsequently have sold or may no longer
All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. IDX information is provided exclusively for consumers' personal, non-commercial use, that it may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing, and that the data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by RMLSTM.
The content relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the IDX program of the RMLSTM of Portland, Oregon. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than BST Realty, LLC are marked with the RMLSTM logo, and detailed information about these properties includes the names of the listing brokers. Listing content is copyright © 2026 RMLSTM, Portland, Oregon.
This content last updated on September 11, 2026 7:36 AM UTC at 4 AM. Some properties which appear for sale on this web site may subsequently have sold or may no longer be available.
Based on information from Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service, which neither guarantees nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. All data is provided AS IS and with all faults. Data maintained by Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Copyright © 2026 WVMLS. All Rights Reserved. Information last updated on September 11, 2026 3:44 PM UTC
All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. The data relating
Based on information from Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service, which neither guarantees nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. All data is provided AS IS and with all faults. Data maintained by Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Copyright © 2026 WVMLS. All Rights Reserved. Information last updated on September 11, 2026 3:42 PM UTC (Demo Feed)
